New Wings on the Horizon: How India’s Aviation Sector Is Preparing for a Post-Duopoly Era
India’s civil aviation sector is among the fastest growing in the world, carrying millions of passengers every month across metros, small towns, and emerging regional hubs. Yet behind this growth lies a structural imbalance. For years, domestic air travel has been dominated by just two powerful players, IndiGo and the Air India Group, together controlling over 90 percent of the market. While this concentration helped bring stability and scale, it has also raised concerns about pricing power, service disruptions, and limited consumer choice. The government’s decision to clear new airlines signals a clear intent to rebalance the skies.Government Clears the Runway for New EntrantsThe Union civil aviation ministry has granted no objection certificates to two new airlines—Al Hind Air and FlyExpress—while confirming that Uttar Pradesh-based Shankh Air, which already holds its NOC, is expected to begin commercial operations in 2026. These approvals come at a crucial moment, when the government is actively seeking to widen participation in the aviation sector and reduce over-dependence on a handful of carriers. Civil Aviation Minister K. Rammohan Naidu described the move as part of a consistent policy approach aimed at supporting competition in line with India’s expanding air travel demand.Who Are the New Players Taking Off?Al Hind Air is being promoted by the Kerala-based Alhind Group, a name already familiar in travel and tourism services, especially in southern India and the Gulf corridor. FlyExpress joins a growing list of aspirant airlines hoping to carve a space in a market where scale has traditionally been difficult to achieve. Shankh Air, the third entrant, is positioning itself as a future domestic carrier with plans to commence services next year. Together, these airlines represent not just business ventures, but fresh possibilities for regional connectivity, employment, and customer choice.What Is a Duopoly?A duopoly is a market situation where two companies dominate an industry and control most of its sales, pricing, and competition. In such a market, these two firms have significant power to influence prices, services, and customer choices, often making it difficult for new players to enter. While competition exists between the two dominant companies, the limited number of players can reduce innovation and flexibility. Duopolies are common in industries that require high investment, strong infrastructure, or regulatory approvals, such as aviation, telecommunications, and energy, where only a few companies can operate at a large scale.Why the Duopoly Has Become a ConcernIndia’s aviation market today is heavily tilted. IndiGo alone commands more than 65 percent of the domestic market share, while the Tata-owned Air India Group controls most of the rest. Such concentration brings efficiency, but it also creates vulnerability. When a single airline faces operational stress, the ripple effects are felt nationwide. This reality became sharply visible in December 2025, when IndiGo experienced an unprecedented operational meltdown. Over 5,000 flights were cancelled in a single week, with nearly 1,600 grounded on one day alone, leaving thousands of passengers stranded across airports.When Systems Fail, People Feel ItFor passengers, the December disruption was not just about delayed flights; it was about missed weddings, postponed exams, medical emergencies, and nights spent on airport floors. Families travelling home, professionals rushing for work, and elderly passengers found themselves helpless in crowded terminals. The episode exposed how deeply everyday life depends on aviation reliability and how risky it can be when one airline carries the bulk of the nation’s traffic. It strengthened the argument that competition is not just an economic issue but a human one.The Role of Policy and Regional ConnectivityThe government’s push for new airlines is closely linked to broader aviation policy goals. Schemes like UDAN have already demonstrated how smaller carriers can connect underserved routes and towns. Airlines such as Star Air, India One Air, and Fly91 have played important roles in linking tier-2 and tier-3 cities, proving that demand exists beyond major metros. By encouraging new entrants, policymakers hope to build a more resilient network where regional routes thrive and passenger pressure is better distributed across multiple operators.What This Means for the Indian FlyerFor passengers, more airlines could mean more choices, better connectivity, and potentially more competitive fares. It could also mean improved service reliability, as dependence on a single dominant carrier reduces. For smaller cities, new airlines bring the promise of direct flights, economic activity, and integration into the national growth story. For aviation professionals, from pilots to ground staff, fresh careers open doors to new opportunities.A Turning Point in India’s Aviation StoryThe clearance of new airlines marks a quiet but significant shift in Indian aviation. It reflects a recognition that growth must be balanced with resilience and scale with competition. As India’s skies grow busier, the success of these new entrants will determine whether the sector evolves into a more diverse and passenger-centric ecosystem. For millions who look to the skies for work, family, and dreams, the arrival of new wings brings renewed hope that Indian aviation’s next chapter will be more reliable, and resilient.